Newt’s effect I Letter
March 22, 2012 · 11:56 AM
For Rick Santorum, or anyone else for this matter, they believe that he could beat Mitt Romney only if Newt Gingrich withdraws from the race, is to indulge in mathematical fantasy. The latest delegate count shows Romney with 495, Santorum 252, Gingrich 131, and Ron Paul 48, yet the combined total of the three is 64 less than Romney’s. Starting after the Nevada primary, there was never an instance when the combined total delegates of these three ever exceeded Romney’s after each primary contest and the trend of the margins between candidates remained constant.
Should Gingrich drop out of the race, each remaining candidate must garner the number of delegates to reach the 1,144 mark and expressed in percentage of the remaining delegates as follows: Romney, 649, or 48 percent; Santorum, 761, or 67 percent; and Paul, 1096, or 96 percent. It is highly improbable for Santorum to close this 19 percent gap with Romney because there is no guarantee that all of Gingrich delegates will choose Santorum over Romney and the remaining Northeastern states, bastion of moderate conservatism where Romney is believed to have strong support, have yet to have their primaries. Moreover, various polls show 73 to 80 percent of republicans believe that Romney will be the presidential nominee.
So, even if Gingrich quits, Santorum has a 19 percent more difficulty than Romney in securing the nomination for president.
Noel C. Sim